UFC on FOX 25: Two submission bets

This week I have found two great bets, one on the undercard and the main event. All of the odds are from Betsafe.

Chris Weidman (2.40) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (1.57)

The main event of UFC ON FOX 25 event will be a duel between former UFC middleweight Champion Chris Weidman and TUF 20 winner Kelvin Gastelum.

Weidman (13-3) has got three loses in a row. Luke Rockhold took his title, Yoel Romero knocked him out in front of his crowd and he ( controversially? ) lost to Gegard Mousasi. The most important question about the possibility of Weidman winning the fight is his mental condition. He had 13 wins in a row and these three losses are something which can destroy him mentally and put doubt in his mind.

Good thing for Chris is that Kelvin (13-2-0-1NC) is originally a welterweight, but because of his ”unprofessional” and ”lazy” approach to weight cutting and eating in training camp led to multiple canceled fights and the UFC had no choice but to make Gastelum fight in -84 kg division. *Note, Gastelum’s victory over Vitor Belfort was changed to No contest because Kelvin was positive on marijuana in a doping test.* That being said, it means that Weidman will have size and reach advantage, but will that be enough to stop Gastelum?

In my opinion Weidman is a better wrestler, but Kelvin has better movement, footwork and boxing. He is more relaxed and fluid. The Mexican-American posses good level of wrestling as well, but it has always been that two wrestlers make a kickboxing fight.

I think that Kelvin will wait for the second round to start the proper attack, just to see how Weidman ”breathes”. My prediction is Gastelum will crack Weidman with punches and then submit him in the third.

Prediction: Gastelum, R3, submission

Damian Grabowski (2.85) vs. Chase Sherman (1.42)

The undercard fight Grabowski vs. Sherman is a duel of two fighters for whom I think they don’t deserve to be in the UFC. Both of these fighters had excellent results in the carrier before they came to the UFC, but the competition in the biggest MMA organization in the world is too tough. ”The Polish Pit Bull” was TKOed in his UFC debut by Derrick Lewis, and then knocked out at the start of the fight against Hamilton.

Chase Sherman (10-3) came to the UFC with 9-1 score, then lost to Justin Ledet and Walt Harris. His only UFC win was against late replacement Rashad Coulter, a guy with a massive heart and thunder in his fists, who would beat Harris if he had a full training camp.

”The Vanilla Gorilla” is a fighter with heavy hands, good movement, but his cardio is just for 6 minutes of fighting. In order to win, Chase must copy the way of Lewis and Hamilton got their wins over Grabowski – he needs to attack early, fast and hope to score a knockout.

The Polish Pitbull (20-4) is a fighter who likes to slowly start the fights. He is a brown belt in BJJ and has a better ground game than Sherman. One other thing is necessary to add. A pro since 2007, 37 years old Grabowski fought much stronger fighters in Russia and in Bellator than Chase Sherman did.

I see this duel as a slow and boring fight, with Grabowski winning because of his experience and fight IQ. I think he will wait until Sherman gets exhausted and then finish him in the third.

Prediction: Grabowski, R3, submission.